Raptors vs Knicks prediction NBA · Wednesday, January 20
At a glance
The New York Knicks (2-3) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Wednesday, January 20 at 7:30 PM ET at Madison Square Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 62% chance to win and projects a 109-113 score (Raptors – Knicks), about 222 total points. This season, the Knicks are 1-2 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Knicks and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: Knicks W2, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Raptors played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors), Nate Bittle (Raptors) and Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Knicks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Knicks 113 – 109 Raptors, a margin of about 3.7 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Raptors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
TORNY
Players to watch
Raptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsKnicks
Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game
Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists
Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8reboundsRecent form
TOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W
129-99NY
106-100L
107-103L111-102W111-97W133-127Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
NY
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| TOR | NY | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 115.4 | Points scored / game | 114.5 |
| 109.5 | Points allowed / game | 110.0 |
| +5.0 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.8 |
| W1 | Current streak | W2 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 2-3 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 1-2 home |
| 46-36 (+2.8) | Last season | 53-29 (+6.3) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Raptors
Injury report Knicks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.