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Jazz vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 19

Tue, Jan 19 · 10:00 PM ETBall Arena · NBC

Utah Jazz

1-4 · away

Projected score

112-123

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

18% win UTAHwin DEN 82%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin11.4

Projected total235

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Utah Jazz (1-4) on Tuesday, January 19 at 10:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 82% chance to win and projects a 112-123 score (Jazz – Nuggets), about 235 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Jazz are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 1-4 for the Jazz (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Jazz L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 21% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz), Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets) and Alpha Diallo (Nuggets)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Nuggets dominate this matchup. The model projects Nuggets 123 – 112 Jazz, a margin of about 11.4 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 235 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+2.6 vs -7.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Nuggets' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.2 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / UTAH -7.0 per game

+9.6

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · UTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable

-0.5

Expected marginfor Nuggets

+11.4

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

54%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

21%

Jazz win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

UTAHDEN

116.1

Points scored / game

119.2

124.3

Points allowed / game

116.2

45.4 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

33.9 %

3-point %

32.8 %

34.8

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

76.6 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

44.5

26.8

Assists / game

26.0

5.0

Steals / game

10.0

6.4

Blocks / game

4.8

17.0

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

UTAH 18% · DEN 82%

ESPN BPI

UTAH 30% · DEN 70%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

UTAH		DEN
1-4	Record	2-2
116.1	Points scored / game	119.2
124.3	Points allowed / game	116.2
-7.0	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
L3	Current streak	W1
1-4	Last 10 games	2-2
0-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
22-60 (-8.4)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.