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Nuggets vs Jazz prediction NBA · Friday, November 27

Fri, Nov 27 · 9:30 PM ETDelta Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

121-114

Utah Jazz

1-4 · home

71% win DENwin UTAH 29%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin6.8

Projected total235

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Utah Jazz (1-4) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Friday, November 27 at 9:30 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 71% chance to win and projects a 121-114 score (Nuggets – Jazz), about 235 total points. This season, the Jazz are 1-3 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Jazz and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Jazz L3, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz) and Trey Alexander (Jazz)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Nuggets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Jazz 114 – 121 Nuggets, a margin of about 6.8 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 235 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-7.0 vs +2.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Nuggets' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.2 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Jazz

Team strength (adjusted point differential)UTAH -7.0 / DEN +2.6 per game

-9.6

Home-court advantageJazz at home

+2.3

InjuriesUTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

+0.5

Expected marginfor Jazz

-6.8

Scenarios

Jazz win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Nuggets win by 10+

40%

Stat comparison Current season

DENUTAH

119.2

Points scored / game

116.1

116.2

Points allowed / game

124.3

45.8 %

Field goal %

45.4 %

32.8 %

3-point %

33.9 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

34.8

79.6 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

46.8

26.0

Assists / game

26.8

10.0

Steals / game

5.0

4.8

Blocks / game

6.4

15.3

Turnovers / game

17.0

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 71% · UTAH 29%

ESPN BPI

DEN 61% · UTAH 39%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DEN		UTAH
2-2	Record	1-4
119.2	Points scored / game	116.1
116.2	Points allowed / game	124.3
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	-7.0
W1	Current streak	L3
2-2	Last 10 games	1-4
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-3 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	22-60 (-8.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nuggets

Alpha Diallo FOut

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.