Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Warriors vs Magic prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 19

Tue, Jan 19 · 7:00 PM ETKia Center

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · away

Projected score

115-114

Orlando Magic

1-3 · home

52% win GSwin ORL 48%

FavoriteGS

Projected margin0.6

Projected total228

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Orlando Magic (1-3) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Tuesday, January 19 at 7:00 PM ET at Kia Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Warriors a 52% chance to win and projects a 115-114 score (Warriors – Magic), about 228 total points. This season, the Magic are 0-2 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-3 for the Magic and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Magic L1, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors), Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic) and Paolo Banchero (Magic)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Magic 114 – 115 Warriors, a margin of about 0.6 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Magic need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Magic

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ORL -2.3 / GS -0.8 per game

-1.5

Home-court advantageMagic at home

+2.3

InjuriesORL: 5 out, 0 questionable · GS: 3 out, 1 questionable

-1.4

Expected marginfor Magic

-0.6

Scenarios

Magic win by 10+

20%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Warriors win by 10+

23%

Stat comparison Current season

GSORL

115.5

Points scored / game

113.6

116.4

Points allowed / game

116.2

45.0 %

Field goal %

44.2 %

36.9 %

3-point %

31.4 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

82.2 %

Free throw %

75.0 %

43.8

Rebounds / game

41.3

25.6

Assists / game

26.0

9.6

Steals / game

7.8

3.8

Blocks / game

4.5

16.8

Turnovers / game

17.8

Players to watch

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Magic

Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / game

Franz WagnerF · #226.0assists

Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

ORL

136-115L

132-125L

115-93W

111-102L

129-99

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

GS 52% · ORL 48%

ESPN BPI

GS 54% · ORL 46%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

GS		ORL
2-3	Record	1-3
115.5	Points scored / game	113.6
116.4	Points allowed / game	116.2
-0.8	Adjusted margin / game	-2.3
W2	Current streak	L1
2-3	Last 10 games	1-3
2-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
37-45 (-0.6)	Last season	45-37 (+0.6)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Injury report Magic

Jonathan Isaac FOut

Jalen Suggs GOut

Paolo Banchero FOut

Noah Penda FOut

Izaiyah Nelson FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.