Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Magic vs Warriors prediction NBA · Saturday, November 7

Sat, Nov 7 · 8:30 PM ETChase Center

Orlando Magic

1-3 · away

Projected score

111-117

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · home

34% win ORLwin GS 66%

FavoriteGS

Projected margin5.2

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the Orlando Magic (1-3) on Saturday, November 7 at 8:30 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Warriors a 66% chance to win and projects a 111-117 score (Magic – Warriors), about 228 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Magic are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 1-3 for the Magic (current streaks: Warriors W2, Magic L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Paolo Banchero (Magic), Noah Penda (Magic), Izaiyah Nelson (Magic) and Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Warriors are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Warriors 117 – 111 Magic, a margin of about 5.2 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Magic need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Warriors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)GS -0.8 / ORL -2.3 per game

+1.5

Home-court advantageWarriors at home

+2.3

InjuriesGS: 3 out, 1 questionable · ORL: 5 out, 0 questionable

+1.4

Expected marginfor Warriors

+5.2

Scenarios

Warriors win by 10+

35%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Magic win by 10+

11%

Stat comparison Current season

ORLGS

113.6

Points scored / game

115.5

116.2

Points allowed / game

116.4

44.2 %

Field goal %

45.0 %

31.4 %

3-point %

36.9 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

75.0 %

Free throw %

82.2 %

41.3

Rebounds / game

43.8

26.0

Assists / game

25.6

7.8

Steals / game

9.6

4.5

Blocks / game

3.8

17.8

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Magic

Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / game

Franz WagnerF · #226.0assists

Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0rebounds

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ORL

136-115L

132-125L

115-93W

111-102L

129-99

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ORL 34% · GS 66%

ESPN BPI

ORL 48% · GS 52%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ORL		GS
1-3	Record	2-3
113.6	Points scored / game	115.5
116.2	Points allowed / game	116.4
-2.3	Adjusted margin / game	-0.8
L1	Current streak	W2
1-3	Last 10 games	2-3
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-1 home
45-37 (+0.6)	Last season	37-45 (-0.6)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Magic

Jonathan Isaac FOut

Jalen Suggs GOut

Paolo Banchero FOut

Noah Penda FOut

Izaiyah Nelson FOut

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.