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Suns vs Clippers prediction NBA · Monday, January 18

Mon, Jan 18 · 10:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · NBA TV, Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV, ClipperVision

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Projected score

111-112

LA Clippers

1-3 · home

47% win PHXwin LAC 53%

FavoriteLAC

Projected margin0.9

Projected total222

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The LA Clippers (1-3) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Monday, January 18 at 10:30 PM ET at Intuit Dome in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Clippers a 53% chance to win and projects a 111-112 score (Suns – Clippers), about 222 total points. This season, the Clippers are 1-1 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-3 for the Clippers and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Clippers L3, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns), Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Clippers), Max Strus (Clippers), Brandon Ingram (Clippers), Bradley Beal (Clippers) and Jordan Miller (Clippers). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Clippers 112 – 111 Suns, a margin of about 0.9 points in favor of the Clippers and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Clippers will be without Yanic Konan Niederhauser or Max Strus (and 3 others). The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Clippers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)LAC +0.4 / PHX -1.4 per game

+1.8

Home-court advantageClippers at home

+2.3

InjuriesLAC: 5 out, 1 questionable · PHX: 1 out, 1 questionable

-3.3

Expected marginfor Clippers

+0.9

Scenarios

Clippers win by 10+

23%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Suns win by 10+

19%

Stat comparison Current season

PHXLAC

111.9

Points scored / game

112.0

113.6

Points allowed / game

111.5

45.6 %

Field goal %

45.9 %

31.9 %

3-point %

39.0 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

35.3

73.9 %

Free throw %

78.6 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

40.8

25.3

Assists / game

25.0

8.7

Steals / game

12.5

5.3

Blocks / game

4.5

14.0

Turnovers / game

23.0

Players to watch

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Clippers

Darius GarlandG · #1021.5pts / game

Darius GarlandG · #106.5assists

Rui HachimuraF · #286.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

LAC

122-110W

121-96L

125-117L

108-101L

103-87

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHX 47% · LAC 53%

ESPN BPI

PHX 53% · LAC 47%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

PHX		LAC
1-2	Record	1-3
111.9	Points scored / game	112.0
113.6	Points allowed / game	111.5
-1.4	Adjusted margin / game	+0.4
L1	Current streak	L3
1-2	Last 10 games	1-3
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	42-40 (+1.1)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Injury report Clippers

Yanic Konan Niederhauser COut

Max Strus GOut

Brandon Ingram FOut

Bradley Beal GOut

Jordan Miller GOut

Rui Hachimura FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.