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Clippers vs Suns prediction NBA · Tuesday, November 10

Tue, Nov 10 · 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV, ClipperVision

LA Clippers

1-3 · away

Projected score

109-111

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · home

43% win LACwin PHX 57%

FavoritePHX

Projected margin2.1

Projected total221

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the LA Clippers (1-3) on Tuesday, November 10 at 9:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Suns a 57% chance to win and projects a 109-111 score (Clippers – Suns), about 221 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Clippers are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 1-3 for the Clippers (current streaks: Suns L1, Clippers L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Suns played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Clippers), Max Strus (Clippers), Brandon Ingram (Clippers), Bradley Beal (Clippers), Jordan Miller (Clippers) and Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Suns 111 – 109 Clippers, a margin of about 2.1 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 221 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. The Clippers will be without Yanic Konan Niederhauser or Max Strus (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Clippers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX -1.4 / LAC +0.4 per game

-1.8

Home-court advantageSuns at home

+2.3

Back-to-backSuns played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesPHX: 1 out, 1 questionable · LAC: 5 out, 1 questionable

+3.3

Expected marginfor Suns

+2.1

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+

26%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Clippers win by 10+

17%

Stat comparison Current season

LACPHX

112.0

Points scored / game

111.9

111.5

Points allowed / game

113.6

45.9 %

Field goal %

45.6 %

39.0 %

3-point %

31.9 %

35.3

3-pointers attempted / game

39.7

78.6 %

Free throw %

73.9 %

40.8

Rebounds / game

39.7

25.0

Assists / game

25.3

12.5

Steals / game

8.7

4.5

Blocks / game

5.3

23.0

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Clippers

Darius GarlandG · #1021.5pts / game

Darius GarlandG · #106.5assists

Rui HachimuraF · #286.0rebounds

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

LAC

122-110W

121-96L

125-117L

108-101L

103-87

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

LAC 43% · PHX 57%

ESPN BPI

LAC 37% · PHX 63%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LAC		PHX
1-3	Record	1-2
112.0	Points scored / game	111.9
111.5	Points allowed / game	113.6
+0.4	Adjusted margin / game	-1.4
L3	Current streak	L1
1-3	Last 10 games	1-2
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
42-40 (+1.1)	Last season	45-37 (+1.5)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Clippers

Yanic Konan Niederhauser COut

Max Strus GOut

Brandon Ingram FOut

Bradley Beal GOut

Jordan Miller GOut

Rui Hachimura FDay-To-Day

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.