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Warriors vs Heat prediction NBA · Sunday, January 17

Sun, Jan 17 · 6:00 PM ETKaseya Center

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · away

Projected score

114-119

Miami Heat

1-4 · home

34% win GSwin MIA 66%

FavoriteMIA

Projected margin5.2

Projected total233

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Miami Heat (1-4) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Sunday, January 17 at 6:00 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Heat a 66% chance to win and projects a 114-119 score (Warriors – Heat), about 233 total points. This season, the Heat are 0-3 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Heat and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Heat W1, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors) and Jimmy Butler III (Warriors). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Heat are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Heat 119 – 114 Warriors, a margin of about 5.2 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other).

The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's offense (118.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Heat

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIA -0.6 / GS -0.8 per game

+0.2

Home-court advantageHeat at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIA: 0 out, 1 questionable · GS: 3 out, 1 questionable

+2.7

Expected marginfor Heat

+5.2

Scenarios

Heat win by 10+

35%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Warriors win by 10+

11%

Stat comparison Current season

GSMIA

115.5

Points scored / game

118.6

116.4

Points allowed / game

119.2

45.0 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

36.9 %

3-point %

31.7 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

82.2 %

Free throw %

71.7 %

43.8

Rebounds / game

42.8

25.6

Assists / game

27.0

9.6

Steals / game

8.4

3.8

Blocks / game

5.4

16.8

Turnovers / game

14.2

Players to watch

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

GS 34% · MIA 66%

ESPN BPI

GS 49% · MIA 51%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

GS		MIA
2-3	Record	1-4
115.5	Points scored / game	118.6
116.4	Points allowed / game	119.2
-0.8	Adjusted margin / game	-0.6
W2	Current streak	W1
2-3	Last 10 games	1-4
2-2 road	Home / road record	0-3 home
37-45 (-0.6)	Last season	43-39 (+2.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.