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Heat vs Warriors prediction NBA · Thursday, November 5

Thu, Nov 5 · 10:00 PM ETChase Center · NBA TV

Miami Heat

1-4 · away

Projected score

116-117

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · home

47% win MIAwin GS 53%

FavoriteGS

Projected margin1.0

Projected total232

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the Miami Heat (1-4) on Thursday, November 5 at 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Warriors a 53% chance to win and projects a 116-117 score (Heat – Warriors), about 232 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Heat are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 1-4 for the Heat (current streaks: Warriors W2, Heat W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Heat played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors) and Jimmy Butler III (Warriors). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Warriors 117 – 116 Heat, a margin of about 1.0 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Heat played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other).

The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's offense (118.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Warriors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)GS -0.8 / MIA -0.6 per game

-0.2

Home-court advantageWarriors at home

+2.3

Back-to-backHeat played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesGS: 3 out, 1 questionable · MIA: 0 out, 1 questionable

-2.7

Expected marginfor Warriors

+1.0

Scenarios

Warriors win by 10+

23%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Heat win by 10+

19%

Stat comparison Current season

MIAGS

118.6

Points scored / game

115.5

119.2

Points allowed / game

116.4

45.3 %

Field goal %

45.0 %

31.7 %

3-point %

36.9 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

71.7 %

Free throw %

82.2 %

42.8

Rebounds / game

43.8

27.0

Assists / game

25.6

8.4

Steals / game

9.6

5.4

Blocks / game

3.8

14.2

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIA 47% · GS 53%

ESPN BPI

MIA 50% · GS 50%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

MIA		GS
1-4	Record	2-3
118.6	Points scored / game	115.5
119.2	Points allowed / game	116.4
-0.6	Adjusted margin / game	-0.8
W1	Current streak	W2
1-4	Last 10 games	2-3
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-1 home
43-39 (+2.3)	Last season	37-45 (-0.6)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.