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Hornets vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Saturday, January 16

Sat, Jan 16 · 9:00 PM ETBall Arena · DAZN CHA

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · away

Projected score

111-115

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

37% win CHAwin DEN 63%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin4.2

Projected total226

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Charlotte Hornets (3-2) on Saturday, January 16 at 9:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 63% chance to win and projects a 111-115 score (Hornets – Nuggets), about 226 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Hornets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 3-2 for the Hornets (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Hornets L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets), Kylan Boswell (Hornets), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets) and Spencer Jones (Nuggets)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Nuggets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Nuggets 115 – 111 Hornets, a margin of about 4.2 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Hornets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / CHA +1.1 per game

+1.5

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · CHA: 4 out, 1 questionable

+0.4

Expected marginfor Nuggets

+4.2

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

32%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Hornets win by 10+

13%

Stat comparison Current season

CHADEN

111.6

Points scored / game

119.2

110.3

Points allowed / game

116.2

41.7 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

30.6 %

3-point %

32.8 %

43.2

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

85.2 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

47.4

Rebounds / game

44.5

20.6

Assists / game

26.0

6.8

Steals / game

10.0

5.2

Blocks / game

4.8

19.0

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHA 37% · DEN 63%

ESPN BPI

CHA 34% · DEN 66%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHA		DEN
3-2	Record	2-2
111.6	Points scored / game	119.2
110.3	Points allowed / game	116.2
+1.1	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
L1	Current streak	W1
3-2	Last 10 games	2-2
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
44-38 (+4.8)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.