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Nuggets vs Hornets prediction NBA · Thursday, January 7

Thu, Jan 7 · 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · DAZN CHA

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

113-114

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · home

49% win DENwin CHA 51%

FavoriteCHA

Projected margin0.4

Projected total226

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Charlotte Hornets (3-2) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Thursday, January 7 at 7:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hornets a 51% chance to win and projects a 113-114 score (Nuggets – Hornets), about 226 total points. This season, the Hornets are 2-1 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Hornets and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Hornets L1, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets), Kon Knueppel (Hornets) and Coby White (Hornets)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Hornets 114 – 113 Nuggets, a margin of about 0.4 points in favor of the Hornets and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others). The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hornets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHA +1.1 / DEN +2.6 per game

-1.5

Home-court advantageHornets at home

+2.3

InjuriesCHA: 4 out, 1 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

-0.4

Expected marginfor Hornets

+0.4

Scenarios

Hornets win by 10+

22%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Nuggets win by 10+

20%

Stat comparison Current season

DENCHA

119.2

Points scored / game

111.6

116.2

Points allowed / game

110.3

45.8 %

Field goal %

41.7 %

32.8 %

3-point %

30.6 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

43.2

79.6 %

Free throw %

85.2 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

47.4

26.0

Assists / game

20.6

10.0

Steals / game

6.8

4.8

Blocks / game

5.2

15.3

Turnovers / game

19.0

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 49% · CHA 51%

ESPN BPI

DEN 57% · CHA 43%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

DEN		CHA
2-2	Record	3-2
119.2	Points scored / game	111.6
116.2	Points allowed / game	110.3
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	+1.1
W1	Current streak	L1
2-2	Last 10 games	3-2
1-1 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	44-38 (+4.8)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.