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Cavaliers vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Saturday, January 16

Sat, Jan 16 · 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · DAZN MEM, DAZN CLE

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-1 · away

Projected score

117-116

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · home

51% win CLEwin MEM 49%

FavoriteCLE

Projected margin0.2

Projected total232

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) on Saturday, January 16 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 51% chance to win and projects a 117-116 score (Cavaliers – Grizzlies), about 232 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Cavaliers are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 3-1 for the Cavaliers (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Cavaliers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Cavaliers played the night before (back-to-back). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Grizzlies 116 – 117 Cavaliers, a margin of about 0.2 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Cavaliers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.8 vs +3.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -1.8 / CLE +3.0 per game

-4.8

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

Back-to-backCavaliers played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesMEM: 0 out, 0 questionable · CLE: 0 out, 2 questionable

+0.7

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

-0.2

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

21%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Cavaliers win by 10+

22%

Stat comparison Current season

CLEMEM

119.6

Points scored / game

115.2

116.0

Points allowed / game

117.3

46.8 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

36.7 %

3-point %

39.1 %

37.5

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

79.3 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

47.0

Rebounds / game

50.0

26.3

Assists / game

25.0

8.8

Steals / game

6.3

7.5

Blocks / game

6.3

17.3

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CLE

132-116L

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CLE 51% · MEM 49%

ESPN BPI

CLE 62% · MEM 38%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CLE		MEM
3-1	Record	4-0
119.6	Points scored / game	115.2
116.0	Points allowed / game	117.3
+3.0	Adjusted margin / game	-1.8
W3	Current streak	W4
3-1	Last 10 games	4-0
0-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
52-30 (+4.1)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GDay-To-Day

Jaylon Tyson GDay-To-Day

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.