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Grizzlies vs Cavaliers prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 18

Wed, Nov 18 · 7:00 PM ETRocket Arena · DAZN CLE, DAZN MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · away

Projected score

114-120

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-1 · home

31% win MEMwin CLE 69%

FavoriteCLE

Projected margin6.2

Projected total234

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Wednesday, November 18 at 7:00 PM ET at Rocket Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 69% chance to win and projects a 114-120 score (Grizzlies – Cavaliers), about 234 total points. This season, the Cavaliers are 3-0 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Cavaliers and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Cavaliers W3, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Meleek Thomas (Cavaliers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Cavaliers, but the Grizzlies have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Cavaliers 120 – 114 Grizzlies, a margin of about 6.2 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Cavaliers will be without Meleek Thomas. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+3.0 vs -1.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Cavaliers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CLE +3.0 / MEM -1.8 per game

+4.8

Home-court advantageCavaliers at home

+2.3

InjuriesCLE: 1 out, 0 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable

-0.9

Expected marginfor Cavaliers

+6.2

Scenarios

Cavaliers win by 10+

38%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Grizzlies win by 10+

10%

Stat comparison Current season

MEMCLE

115.2

Points scored / game

119.6

117.3

Points allowed / game

116.0

45.3 %

Field goal %

46.8 %

39.1 %

3-point %

36.7 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

37.5

82.8 %

Free throw %

79.3 %

50.0

Rebounds / game

47.0

25.0

Assists / game

26.3

6.3

Steals / game

8.8

6.3

Blocks / game

7.5

15.5

Turnovers / game

17.3

Players to watch

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

CLE

132-116L

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MEM 31% · CLE 69%

ESPN BPI

MEM 27% · CLE 73%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MEM		CLE
4-0	Record	3-1
115.2	Points scored / game	119.6
117.3	Points allowed / game	116.0
-1.8	Adjusted margin / game	+3.0
W4	Current streak	W3
4-0	Last 10 games	3-1
3-0 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
25-57 (-6.0)	Last season	52-30 (+4.1)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.