Kings vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Friday, January 15
At a glance
The Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Friday, January 15 at 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Trail Blazers a 93% chance to win and projects a 105-124 score (Kings – Trail Blazers), about 229 total points. This season, the Trail Blazers are 1-0 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-0 for the Trail Blazers and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Trail Blazers W3, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 11% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Kings played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings), Ben Simmons (Kings), Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers) and Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Trail Blazers dominate this matchup. The model projects Trail Blazers 124 – 105 Kings, a margin of about 18.5 points in favor of the Trail Blazers and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Kings played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+3.0 vs -10.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Trail Blazers' offense (118.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Trail Blazers' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.7 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
SACPOR
Players to watch
Kings
Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game
Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assistsDomantas SabonisF · #1116.5reboundsTrail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game
Ja MorantG · #16.3assists
Donovan ClinganC · #239.3reboundsRecent form
SAC
126-97L
121-96L
128-120L
123-112L130-103POR
110-98L
128-118W
124-83W128-120W
136-129Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| SAC | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 3-0 |
| 110.2 | Points scored / game | 118.2 |
| 122.1 | Points allowed / game | 114.7 |
| -10.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.0 |
| L4 | Current streak | W3 |
| 0-4 | Last 10 games | 3-0 |
| 0-2 road | Home / road record | 1-0 home |
| 22-60 (-10.0) | Last season | 42-40 (-0.3) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Kings
Injury report Trail Blazers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.