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Wizards vs Rockets prediction NBA · Friday, January 15

Fri, Jan 15 · 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston)

Washington Wizards

2-3 · away

Projected score

106-123

Houston Rockets

5-0 · home

9% win WSHwin HOU 91%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin16.7

Projected total229

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the Washington Wizards (2-3) on Friday, January 15 at 8:30 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 91% chance to win and projects a 106-123 score (Wizards – Rockets), about 229 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Wizards are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 2-3 for the Wizards (current streaks: Rockets W5, Wizards L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 13% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards), Jamir Watkins (Wizards), Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets) and Steven Adams (Rockets). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Rockets start with a clear edge. The model projects Rockets 123 – 106 Wizards, a margin of about 16.7 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (+6.7 vs -7.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' offense (117.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / WSH -7.7 per game

+14.4

Home-court advantageRockets at home

+2.3

InjuriesHOU: 3 out, 1 questionable · WSH: 3 out, 1 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Rockets

+16.7

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+

70%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

13%

Wizards win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

WSHHOU

113.1

Points scored / game

117.5

122.2

Points allowed / game

109.7

48.0 %

Field goal %

51.7 %

28.5 %

3-point %

40.4 %

31.6

3-pointers attempted / game

32.2

83.1 %

Free throw %

84.7 %

40.0

Rebounds / game

44.8

25.8

Assists / game

28.2

7.4

Steals / game

10.2

5.6

Blocks / game

6.0

13.6

Turnovers / game

15.8

Players to watch

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

WSH 9% · HOU 91%

ESPN BPI

WSH 21% · HOU 79%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

WSH		HOU
2-3	Record	5-0
113.1	Points scored / game	117.5
122.2	Points allowed / game	109.7
-7.7	Adjusted margin / game	+6.7
L2	Current streak	W5
2-3	Last 10 games	5-0
1-2 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
17-65 (-12.0)	Last season	52-30 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.