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Rockets vs Wizards prediction NBA · Sunday, November 15

Sun, Nov 15 · 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · MNMT

Houston Rockets

5-0 · away

Projected score

120-108

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

83% win HOUwin WSH 17%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin12.1

Projected total229

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Sunday, November 15 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 83% chance to win and projects a 120-108 score (Rockets – Wizards), about 229 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: Wizards L2, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 20% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets), Steven Adams (Rockets), Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards) and Jamir Watkins (Wizards). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Rockets dominate this matchup. The model projects Wizards 108 – 120 Rockets, a margin of about 12.1 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs +6.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' offense (117.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / HOU +6.7 per game

-14.4

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · HOU: 3 out, 1 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Wizards

-12.1

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

20%

Rockets win by 10+

57%

Stat comparison Current season

HOUWSH

117.5

Points scored / game

113.1

109.7

Points allowed / game

122.2

51.7 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

40.4 %

3-point %

28.5 %

32.2

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

84.7 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

40.0

28.2

Assists / game

25.8

10.2

Steals / game

7.4

6.0

Blocks / game

5.6

15.8

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

HOU 83% · WSH 17%

ESPN BPI

HOU 72% · WSH 28%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

HOU		WSH
5-0	Record	2-3
117.5	Points scored / game	113.1
109.7	Points allowed / game	122.2
+6.7	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
W5	Current streak	L2
5-0	Last 10 games	2-3
3-0 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
52-30 (+5.2)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.