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Suns vs Pacers prediction NBA · Friday, January 15

Fri, Jan 15 · 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Projected score

115-111

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · home

63% win PHXwin IND 37%

FavoritePHX

Projected margin4.3

Projected total226

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Friday, January 15 at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Suns a 63% chance to win and projects a 115-111 score (Suns – Pacers), about 226 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Pacers L2, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns), Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) and Johnny Furphy (Pacers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Suns are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Pacers 111 – 115 Suns, a margin of about 4.3 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Suns' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -4.7 / PHX -1.4 per game

-3.3

Home-court advantagePacers at home

+2.3

InjuriesIND: 5 out, 2 questionable · PHX: 1 out, 1 questionable

-3.3

Expected marginfor Pacers

-4.3

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+

13%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Suns win by 10+

32%

Stat comparison Current season

PHXIND

111.9

Points scored / game

113.2

113.6

Points allowed / game

118.8

45.6 %

Field goal %

47.1 %

31.9 %

3-point %

31.2 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

73.9 %

Free throw %

72.7 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

44.0

25.3

Assists / game

29.4

8.7

Steals / game

6.4

5.3

Blocks / game

4.8

14.0

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHX 63% · IND 37%

ESPN BPI

PHX 38% · IND 62%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

PHX		IND
1-2	Record	2-3
111.9	Points scored / game	113.2
113.6	Points allowed / game	118.8
-1.4	Adjusted margin / game	-4.7
L1	Current streak	L2
1-2	Last 10 games	2-3
0-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	19-63 (-8.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.