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Pacers vs Suns prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 23

Wed, Dec 23 · 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family CBS5, KPHE, KPHO, DAZN IND

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · away

Projected score

109-118

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · home

24% win INDwin PHX 76%

FavoritePHX

Projected margin8.9

Projected total226

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Wednesday, December 23 at 9:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Suns a 76% chance to win and projects a 109-118 score (Pacers – Suns), about 226 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Suns L1, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), Johnny Furphy (Pacers) and Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Suns dominate this matchup. The model projects Suns 118 – 109 Pacers, a margin of about 8.9 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Suns' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX -1.4 / IND -4.7 per game

+3.3

Home-court advantageSuns at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHX: 1 out, 1 questionable · IND: 5 out, 2 questionable

+3.3

Expected marginfor Suns

+8.9

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+

46%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

25%

Pacers win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

INDPHX

113.2

Points scored / game

111.9

118.8

Points allowed / game

113.6

47.1 %

Field goal %

45.6 %

31.2 %

3-point %

31.9 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

39.7

72.7 %

Free throw %

73.9 %

44.0

Rebounds / game

39.7

29.4

Assists / game

25.3

6.4

Steals / game

8.7

4.8

Blocks / game

5.3

14.8

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

IND 24% · PHX 76%

ESPN BPI

IND 52% · PHX 48%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

IND		PHX
2-3	Record	1-2
113.2	Points scored / game	111.9
118.8	Points allowed / game	113.6
-4.7	Adjusted margin / game	-1.4
L2	Current streak	L1
2-3	Last 10 games	1-2
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
19-63 (-8.0)	Last season	45-37 (+1.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.