Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Nuggets vs Knicks prediction NBA · Monday, January 11

Mon, Jan 11 · 7:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · NBCSN

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

111-117

New York Knicks

2-3 · home

31% win DENwin NY 69%

FavoriteNY

Projected margin6.2

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The New York Knicks (2-3) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Monday, January 11 at 7:30 PM ET at Madison Square Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 69% chance to win and projects a 111-117 score (Nuggets – Knicks), about 228 total points. This season, the Knicks are 1-2 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Knicks and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Knicks W2, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets) and Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Knicks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Knicks 117 – 111 Nuggets, a margin of about 6.2 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Knicks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)NY +3.8 / DEN +2.6 per game

+1.2

Home-court advantageKnicks at home

+2.3

InjuriesNY: 1 out, 0 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

+2.7

Expected marginfor Knicks

+6.2

Scenarios

Knicks win by 10+

38%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Nuggets win by 10+

10%

Stat comparison Current season

DENNY

119.2

Points scored / game

114.5

116.2

Points allowed / game

110.0

45.8 %

Field goal %

42.2 %

32.8 %

3-point %

35.9 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

79.6 %

Free throw %

75.8 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

48.2

26.0

Assists / game

26.8

10.0

Steals / game

7.2

4.8

Blocks / game

4.4

15.3

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Knicks

Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game

Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists

Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

106-100L

107-103L

111-102W

111-97W

133-127

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 31% · NY 69%

ESPN BPI

DEN 37% · NY 63%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DEN		NY
2-2	Record	2-3
119.2	Points scored / game	114.5
116.2	Points allowed / game	110.0
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	+3.8
W1	Current streak	W2
2-2	Last 10 games	2-3
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	53-29 (+6.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.