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Knicks vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Saturday, January 2

Sat, Jan 2 · 5:00 PM ETBall Arena · NBA TV

New York Knicks

2-3 · away

Projected score

115-113

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

55% win NYwin DEN 45%

FavoriteNY

Projected margin1.6

Projected total228

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the New York Knicks (2-3) on Saturday, January 2 at 5:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 55% chance to win and projects a 115-113 score (Knicks – Nuggets), about 228 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Knicks are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 2-3 for the Knicks (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Knicks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets) and Julian Strawther (Nuggets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Nuggets 113 – 115 Knicks, a margin of about 1.6 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / NY +3.8 per game

-1.2

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · NY: 1 out, 0 questionable

-2.7

Expected marginfor Nuggets

-1.6

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

18%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Knicks win by 10+

25%

Stat comparison Current season

NYDEN

114.5

Points scored / game

119.2

110.0

Points allowed / game

116.2

42.2 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

35.9 %

3-point %

32.8 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

75.8 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

48.2

Rebounds / game

44.5

26.8

Assists / game

26.0

7.2

Steals / game

10.0

4.4

Blocks / game

4.8

14.8

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

Knicks

Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game

Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists

Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

106-100L

107-103L

111-102W

111-97W

133-127

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

NY 55% · DEN 45%

ESPN BPI

NY 52% · DEN 48%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

NY		DEN
2-3	Record	2-2
114.5	Points scored / game	119.2
110.0	Points allowed / game	116.2
+3.8	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
W2	Current streak	W1
2-3	Last 10 games	2-2
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
53-29 (+6.3)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Injury report Nuggets

Alpha Diallo FOut

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.