Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Rockets vs Celtics prediction NBA · Monday, January 11

Mon, Jan 11 · 7:30 PM ETTD Garden

Houston Rockets

5-0 · away

Projected score

110-114

Boston Celtics

3-1 · home

36% win HOUwin BOS 64%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin4.4

Projected total224

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Monday, January 11 at 7:30 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 64% chance to win and projects a 110-114 score (Rockets – Celtics), about 224 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: Celtics W3, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets), Steven Adams (Rockets) and Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Celtics, but the Rockets have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Celtics 114 – 110 Rockets, a margin of about 4.4 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Rockets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Celtics

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +6.6 / HOU +6.7 per game

-0.1

Home-court advantageCeltics at home

+2.3

InjuriesBOS: 1 out, 0 questionable · HOU: 3 out, 1 questionable

+2.2

Expected marginfor Celtics

+4.4

Scenarios

Celtics win by 10+

33%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Rockets win by 10+

13%

Stat comparison Current season

HOUBOS

117.5

Points scored / game

116.1

109.7

Points allowed / game

108.3

51.7 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

40.4 %

3-point %

38.6 %

32.2

3-pointers attempted / game

41.5

84.7 %

Free throw %

76.0 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

44.3

28.2

Assists / game

27.8

10.2

Steals / game

9.0

6.0

Blocks / game

3.8

15.8

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

HOU 36% · BOS 64%

ESPN BPI

HOU 47% · BOS 53%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

HOU		BOS
5-0	Record	3-1
117.5	Points scored / game	116.1
109.7	Points allowed / game	108.3
+6.7	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
W5	Current streak	W3
5-0	Last 10 games	3-1
3-0 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
52-30 (+5.2)	Last season	56-26 (+7.7)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.