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Celtics vs Rockets prediction NBA · Monday, November 2

Mon, Nov 2 · 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · NBA League Pass

Boston Celtics

3-1 · away

Projected score

110-113

Houston Rockets

5-0 · home

41% win BOSwin HOU 59%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin2.7

Projected total223

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Monday, November 2 at 8:30 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 59% chance to win and projects a 110-113 score (Celtics – Rockets), about 223 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: Rockets W5, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Celtics played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics), Marcus Smart (Rockets) and Steven Adams (Rockets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

The Rockets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Rockets 113 – 110 Celtics, a margin of about 2.7 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 223 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Rockets will be without Marcus Smart or Steven Adams. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Celtics need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / BOS +6.6 per game

+0.1

Home-court advantageRockets at home

+2.3

Back-to-backCeltics played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesHOU: 2 out, 1 questionable · BOS: 1 out, 0 questionable

-1.3

Expected marginfor Rockets

+2.7

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+

28%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Celtics win by 10+

15%

Stat comparison Current season

BOSHOU

116.1

Points scored / game

117.5

108.3

Points allowed / game

109.7

46.5 %

Field goal %

51.7 %

38.6 %

3-point %

40.4 %

41.5

3-pointers attempted / game

32.2

76.0 %

Free throw %

84.7 %

44.3

Rebounds / game

44.8

27.8

Assists / game

28.2

9.0

Steals / game

10.2

3.8

Blocks / game

6.0

15.5

Turnovers / game

15.8

Players to watch

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BOS 41% · HOU 59%

ESPN BPI

BOS 45% · HOU 55%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BOS		HOU
3-1	Record	5-0
116.1	Points scored / game	117.5
108.3	Points allowed / game	109.7
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	+6.7
W3	Current streak	W5
3-1	Last 10 games	5-0
0-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
56-26 (+7.7)	Last season	52-30 (+5.2)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Injury report Rockets

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.