76ers vs Raptors prediction NBA · Sunday, January 10
At a glance
The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) on Sunday, January 10 at 6:00 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 76% chance to win and projects a 108-116 score (76ers – Raptors), about 224 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the 76ers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 4-1 for the 76ers (current streaks: Raptors W1, 76ers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers), Ariel Hukporti (76ers), Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Raptors dominate this matchup. The model projects Raptors 116 – 108 76ers, a margin of about 8.7 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+5.0 vs +0.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The 76ers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
PHITOR
Players to watch
76ers
Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game
LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists
Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0reboundsRaptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsRecent form
PHI
106-100W
114-106W
127-116L
106-93W
114-109TOR129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W
129-99Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
TOR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| PHI | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| 114.4 | Points scored / game | 115.4 |
| 113.5 | Points allowed / game | 109.5 |
| +0.7 | Adjusted margin / game | +5.0 |
| W1 | Current streak | W1 |
| 4-1 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 2-0 road | Home / road record | 2-0 home |
| 45-37 (-0.2) | Last season | 46-36 (+2.8) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report 76ers
Injury report Raptors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.