Raptors vs 76ers prediction NBA · Thursday, November 12
At a glance
The Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Thursday, November 12 at 7:00 PM ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 58% chance to win and projects a 113-110 score (Raptors – 76ers), about 223 total points. This season, the 76ers are 2-1 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the 76ers and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: 76ers W1, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Raptors played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors), Nate Bittle (Raptors), Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers) and Ariel Hukporti (76ers). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects 76ers 110 – 113 Raptors, a margin of about 2.5 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 223 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others). The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+0.7 vs +5.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The 76ers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
TORPHI
Players to watch
Raptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2rebounds76ers
Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game
LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists
Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0reboundsRecent form
TOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W
129-99PHI
106-100W
114-106W
127-116L106-93W
114-109Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
TOR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.
Team comparison
| TOR | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 115.4 | Points scored / game | 114.4 |
| 109.5 | Points allowed / game | 113.5 |
| +5.0 | Adjusted margin / game | +0.7 |
| W1 | Current streak | W1 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 4-1 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 2-1 home |
| 46-36 (+2.8) | Last season | 45-37 (-0.2) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Raptors
Injury report 76ers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.