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Pelicans vs Heat prediction NBA · Sunday, January 10

Sun, Jan 10 · 6:00 PM ETKaseya Center · GCSEN, Pelicans.com
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans
1-4 · away
Projected score
115-122
Miami Heat
Miami Heat
1-4 · home
29% win NOwin MIA 71%
FavoriteMIA
Projected margin7.1
Projected total236
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Miami Heat (1-4) host the New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) on Sunday, January 10 at 6:00 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Heat a 71% chance to win and projects a 115-122 score (Pelicans – Heat), about 236 total points. This season, the Heat are 0-3 at home and the Pelicans are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Heat and 0-4 for the Pelicans (current streaks: Heat W1, Pelicans L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Yves Missi (Pelicans). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Heat, but the Pelicans have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Heat 122 – 115 Pelicans, a margin of about 7.1 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 236 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Pelicans will be without Yves Missi. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Heat
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIA -0.6 / NO -4.1 per game
+3.5
Home-court advantageHeat at home
+2.3
InjuriesMIA: 0 out, 1 questionable · NO: 1 out, 2 questionable
+1.3
Expected marginfor Heat
+7.1

Scenarios

Heat win by 10+
41%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
27%
Pelicans win by 10+
9%

Stat comparison Current season

NOMIA
115.7
Points scored / game
118.6
120.5
Points allowed / game
119.2
46.5 %
Field goal %
45.3 %
29.0 %
3-point %
31.7 %
31.0
3-pointers attempted / game
37.8
83.6 %
Free throw %
71.7 %
44.3
Rebounds / game
42.8
23.5
Assists / game
27.0
12.3
Steals / game
8.4
4.8
Blocks / game
5.4
16.5
Turnovers / game
14.2

Players to watch

Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2rebounds
Heat
Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game
Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists
Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
NO
WWSH107-106LIND123-120LUTAH120-119LDEN141-135 OTLDEN104-91
MIA
LMIN131-106LDET128-111LCHA115-110LDAL113-109WATL129-117

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Jan 2MIAupcomingNOJan 10NOthis gameMIA

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
NO 29% · MIA 71%
ESPN BPI
NO 28% · MIA 72%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

NOMIA
0-4Record1-4
115.7Points scored / game118.6
120.5Points allowed / game119.2
-4.1Adjusted margin / game-0.6
L4Current streakW1
0-4Last 10 games1-4
0-2 roadHome / road record0-3 home
26-56 (-4.5)Last season43-39 (+2.3)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

New Orleans Pelicans Injury report Pelicans

Yves Missi COut
Jordan Poole GDay-To-Day
Dejounte Murray GDay-To-Day

Miami Heat Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.