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Heat vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Saturday, January 2

Sat, Jan 2 · 7:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center · GCSEN, Pelicans.com

Miami Heat

1-4 · away

Projected score

120-116

New Orleans Pelicans

0-4 · home

61% win MIAwin NO 39%

FavoriteMIA

Projected margin3.6

Projected total236

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the Miami Heat (1-4) on Saturday, January 2 at 7:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Heat a 61% chance to win and projects a 120-116 score (Heat – Pelicans), about 236 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Heat are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 1-4 for the Heat (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Heat W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans) and Yves Missi (Pelicans). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Heat are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Pelicans 116 – 120 Heat, a margin of about 3.6 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 236 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pelicans

Team strength (adjusted point differential)NO -4.1 / MIA -0.6 per game

-3.5

Home-court advantagePelicans at home

+2.3

InjuriesNO: 3 out, 0 questionable · MIA: 0 out, 1 questionable

-2.4

Expected marginfor Pelicans

-3.6

Scenarios

Pelicans win by 10+

14%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Heat win by 10+

30%

Stat comparison Current season

MIANO

118.6

Points scored / game

115.7

119.2

Points allowed / game

120.5

45.3 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

31.7 %

3-point %

29.0 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

31.0

71.7 %

Free throw %

83.6 %

42.8

Rebounds / game

44.3

27.0

Assists / game

23.5

8.4

Steals / game

12.3

5.4

Blocks / game

4.8

14.2

Turnovers / game

16.5

Players to watch

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Pelicans

Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game

Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists

Derik QueenC · #229.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

107-106L

123-120L

120-119L

141-135 OTL DEN

104-91

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIA 61% · NO 39%

ESPN BPI

MIA 62% · NO 38%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIA		NO
1-4	Record	0-4
118.6	Points scored / game	115.7
119.2	Points allowed / game	120.5
-0.6	Adjusted margin / game	-4.1
W1	Current streak	L4
1-4	Last 10 games	0-4
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
43-39 (+2.3)	Last season	26-56 (-4.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Injury report Pelicans

Dejounte Murray GOut

Jordan Poole GOut

Yves Missi COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.