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Spurs vs Hawks prediction NBA · Sunday, January 10

Sun, Jan 10 · 3:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · DAZN SAS

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · away

Projected score

116-115

Atlanta Hawks

3-3 · home

55% win SAwin ATL 45%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin1.6

Projected total231

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Sunday, January 10 at 3:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 55% chance to win and projects a 116-115 score (Spurs – Hawks), about 231 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Hawks L3, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs), Jayden Quaintance (Spurs), Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Hawks 115 – 116 Spurs, a margin of about 1.6 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance.

The Hawks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / SA +6.6 per game

-3.9

Home-court advantageHawks at home

+2.3

InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · SA: 2 out, 0 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Hawks

-1.6

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+

18%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Spurs win by 10+

25%

Stat comparison Current season

SAATL

118.9

Points scored / game

119.0

111.1

Points allowed / game

115.8

46.0 %

Field goal %

46.9 %

34.6 %

3-point %

34.8 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

41.4

78.3 %

Free throw %

72.8 %

45.0

Rebounds / game

41.4

28.2

Assists / game

32.2

9.8

Steals / game

10.2

6.6

Blocks / game

3.6

12.8

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

ATL

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117W

114-111

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SA 55% · ATL 45%

ESPN BPI

SA 63% · ATL 37%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SA		ATL
3-2	Record	2-3
118.9	Points scored / game	119.0
111.1	Points allowed / game	115.8
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	+2.7
W3	Current streak	L3
3-2	Last 10 games	2-3
2-0 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
62-20 (+8.3)	Last season	46-36 (+2.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.