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Hawks vs Spurs prediction NBA · Sunday, December 27

Sun, Dec 27 · 7:00 PM ETFrost Bank Center · DAZN SAS
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks
2-3 · away
Projected score
111-119
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs
3-2 · home
27% win ATLwin SA 73%
FavoriteSA
Projected margin7.8
Projected total229
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The San Antonio Spurs (3-2) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Sunday, December 27 at 7:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 73% chance to win and projects a 111-119 score (Hawks – Spurs), about 229 total points. This season, the Spurs are 1-2 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Spurs and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Spurs W3, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Hawks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks), Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Spurs start with a clear edge. The model projects Spurs 119 – 111 Hawks, a margin of about 7.8 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hawks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar.

  • The Hawks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Spurs
Team strength (adjusted point differential)SA +6.6 / ATL +2.7 per game
+3.9
Home-court advantageSpurs at home
+2.3
Back-to-backHawks played yesterday
+1.6
InjuriesSA: 2 out, 0 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable
0.0
Expected marginfor Spurs
+7.8

Scenarios

Spurs win by 10+
43%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
26%
Hawks win by 10+
8%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLSA
119.0
Points scored / game
118.9
115.8
Points allowed / game
111.1
46.9 %
Field goal %
46.0 %
34.8 %
3-point %
34.6 %
41.4
3-pointers attempted / game
38.2
72.8 %
Free throw %
78.3 %
41.4
Rebounds / game
45.0
32.2
Assists / game
28.2
10.2
Steals / game
9.8
3.6
Blocks / game
6.6
14.0
Turnovers / game
12.8

Players to watch

Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game
Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists
Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds
Spurs
Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game
De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists
Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
ATL
WORL132-125WCHA128-81LHOU121-114LHOU120-110LMIA129-117
SA
LOKC116-104LHOU114-110WDAL122-106WSAC130-103WUTAH117-111 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Dec 27ATLthis gameSAJan 10SAupcomingATL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
ATL 27% · SA 73%
ESPN BPI
ATL 25% · SA 75%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATLSA
2-3Record3-2
119.0Points scored / game118.9
115.8Points allowed / game111.1
+2.7Adjusted margin / game+6.6
L3Current streakW3
2-3Last 10 games3-2
2-1 roadHome / road record1-2 home
46-36 (+2.4)Last season62-20 (+8.3)
YesPlayed yesterdayNo

Atlanta Hawks Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut
Henri Veesaar COut

San Antonio Spurs Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut
Jayden Quaintance FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.