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Suns vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Friday, January 8

Fri, Jan 8 · 9:30 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · ESPN, Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Projected score

114-111

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

61% win PHXwin DAL 39%

FavoritePHX

Projected margin3.4

Projected total225

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Friday, January 8 at 9:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Suns a 61% chance to win and projects a 114-111 score (Suns – Mavericks), about 225 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Mavericks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns), Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks) and Dereck Lively II (Mavericks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Suns are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Mavericks 111 – 114 Suns, a margin of about 3.4 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Suns' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / PHX -1.4 per game

-1.4

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backMavericks played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesDAL: 4 out, 1 questionable · PHX: 1 out, 1 questionable

-2.7

Expected marginfor Mavericks

-3.4

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

14%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Suns win by 10+

30%

Stat comparison Current season

PHXDAL

111.9

Points scored / game

114.1

113.6

Points allowed / game

117.4

45.6 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

31.9 %

3-point %

34.6 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

73.9 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

44.2

25.3

Assists / game

27.6

8.7

Steals / game

9.0

5.3

Blocks / game

7.4

14.0

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHX 61% · DAL 39%

ESPN BPI

PHX 44% · DAL 56%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

PHX		DAL
1-2	Record	3-2
111.9	Points scored / game	114.1
113.6	Points allowed / game	117.4
-1.4	Adjusted margin / game	-2.8
L1	Current streak	W2
1-2	Last 10 games	3-2
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.