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Mavericks vs Suns prediction NBA · Friday, November 27

Fri, Nov 27 · 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · away

Projected score

110-116

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · home

31% win DALwin PHX 69%

FavoritePHX

Projected margin6.4

Projected total226

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Friday, November 27 at 9:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Suns a 69% chance to win and projects a 110-116 score (Mavericks – Suns), about 226 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Suns L1, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks) and Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Suns are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Suns 116 – 110 Mavericks, a margin of about 6.4 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Suns' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX -1.4 / DAL -2.8 per game

+1.4

Home-court advantageSuns at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHX: 1 out, 1 questionable · DAL: 4 out, 1 questionable

+2.7

Expected marginfor Suns

+6.4

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+

39%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Mavericks win by 10+

10%

Stat comparison Current season

DALPHX

114.1

Points scored / game

111.9

117.4

Points allowed / game

113.6

49.0 %

Field goal %

45.6 %

34.6 %

3-point %

31.9 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

39.7

76.7 %

Free throw %

73.9 %

44.2

Rebounds / game

39.7

27.6

Assists / game

25.3

9.0

Steals / game

8.7

7.4

Blocks / game

5.3

15.6

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DAL 31% · PHX 69%

ESPN BPI

DAL 51% · PHX 49%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

DAL		PHX
3-2	Record	1-2
114.1	Points scored / game	111.9
117.4	Points allowed / game	113.6
-2.8	Adjusted margin / game	-1.4
W2	Current streak	L1
3-2	Last 10 games	1-2
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
26-56 (-5.5)	Last season	45-37 (+1.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.