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Grizzlies vs Spurs prediction NBA · Friday, January 8

Fri, Jan 8 · 8:00 PM ETFrost Bank Center · DAZN SAS, DAZN MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · away

Projected score

109-120

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · home

20% win MEMwin SA 80%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin10.5

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The San Antonio Spurs (3-2) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Friday, January 8 at 8:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 80% chance to win and projects a 109-120 score (Grizzlies – Spurs), about 229 total points. This season, the Spurs are 1-2 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Spurs and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Spurs W3, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 22% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Grizzlies played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Spurs dominate this matchup. The model projects Spurs 120 – 109 Grizzlies, a margin of about 10.5 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Grizzlies played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs -1.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Spurs

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SA +6.6 / MEM -1.8 per game

+8.4

Home-court advantageSpurs at home

+2.3

Back-to-backGrizzlies played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesSA: 2 out, 0 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Spurs

+10.5

Scenarios

Spurs win by 10+

52%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

22%

Grizzlies win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

MEMSA

115.2

Points scored / game

118.9

117.3

Points allowed / game

111.1

45.3 %

Field goal %

46.0 %

39.1 %

3-point %

34.6 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

82.8 %

Free throw %

78.3 %

50.0

Rebounds / game

45.0

25.0

Assists / game

28.2

6.3

Steals / game

9.8

6.3

Blocks / game

6.6

15.5

Turnovers / game

12.8

Players to watch

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MEM 20% · SA 80%

ESPN BPI

MEM 16% · SA 84%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MEM		SA
4-0	Record	3-2
115.2	Points scored / game	118.9
117.3	Points allowed / game	111.1
-1.8	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
W4	Current streak	W3
4-0	Last 10 games	3-2
3-0 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
25-57 (-6.0)	Last season	62-20 (+8.3)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.