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Spurs vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Tuesday, December 29

Tue, Dec 29 · 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · DAZN MEM, DAZN SAS

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · away

Projected score

117-113

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · home

63% win SAwin MEM 37%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin4.3

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Tuesday, December 29 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 63% chance to win and projects a 117-113 score (Spurs – Grizzlies), about 230 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Spurs, but the Grizzlies have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Grizzlies 113 – 117 Spurs, a margin of about 4.3 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.8 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -1.8 / SA +6.6 per game

-8.4

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

InjuriesMEM: 0 out, 0 questionable · SA: 2 out, 0 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

-4.3

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

13%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Spurs win by 10+

32%

Stat comparison Current season

SAMEM

118.9

Points scored / game

115.2

111.1

Points allowed / game

117.3

46.0 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

34.6 %

3-point %

39.1 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

78.3 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

45.0

Rebounds / game

50.0

28.2

Assists / game

25.0

9.8

Steals / game

6.3

6.6

Blocks / game

6.3

12.8

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SA 63% · MEM 37%

ESPN BPI

SA 77% · MEM 23%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SA		MEM
3-2	Record	4-0
118.9	Points scored / game	115.2
111.1	Points allowed / game	117.3
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	-1.8
W3	Current streak	W4
3-2	Last 10 games	4-0
2-0 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
62-20 (+8.3)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.