Timberwolves vs Raptors prediction NBA · Thursday, January 7
At a glance
The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) on Thursday, January 7 at 7:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 57% chance to win and projects a 112-114 score (Timberwolves – Raptors), about 227 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Timberwolves are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 3-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Raptors W1, Timberwolves L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves), Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves), Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Raptors 114 – 112 Timberwolves, a margin of about 2.1 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Timberwolves need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
MINTOR
Players to watch
Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game
LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists
Rudy GobertC · #2712.2reboundsRaptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsRecent form
MIN
131-106W
115-93W
117-94L
127-125 OTL
119-114TOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W129-99Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| MIN | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| 118.7 | Points scored / game | 115.4 |
| 112.6 | Points allowed / game | 109.5 |
| +5.2 | Adjusted margin / game | +5.0 |
| L2 | Current streak | W1 |
| 3-2 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 2-1 road | Home / road record | 2-0 home |
| 49-33 (+3.4) | Last season | 46-36 (+2.8) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Timberwolves
Injury report Raptors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.