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Thunder vs Wizards prediction NBA · Thursday, January 7

Thu, Jan 7 · 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · KSBI, Thunder App
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder
4-1 · away
Projected score
117-107
Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards
2-3 · home
79% win OKCwin WSH 21%
FavoriteOKC
Projected margin10.0
Projected total225
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Thursday, January 7 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 79% chance to win and projects a 117-107 score (Thunder – Wizards), about 225 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Wizards L2, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Thunder played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder), Cason Wallace (Thunder) and Justin Champagnie (Wizards)…. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Thunder start with a clear edge. The model projects Wizards 107 – 117 Thunder, a margin of about 10.0 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others).

  • The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs +7.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards
Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / OKC +7.6 per game
-15.3
Home-court advantageWizards at home
+2.3
Back-to-backThunder played yesterday
+1.6
InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · OKC: 5 out, 1 questionable
+1.4
Expected marginfor Wizards
-10.0

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+
6%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
23%
Thunder win by 10+
50%

Stat comparison Current season

OKCWSH
115.8
Points scored / game
113.1
106.9
Points allowed / game
122.2
44.0 %
Field goal %
48.0 %
30.9 %
3-point %
28.5 %
32.4
3-pointers attempted / game
31.6
86.4 %
Free throw %
83.1 %
46.0
Rebounds / game
40.0
22.0
Assists / game
25.8
8.4
Steals / game
7.4
6.8
Blocks / game
5.6
13.6
Turnovers / game
13.6

Players to watch

Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6rebounds
Wizards
Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game
Trae YoungG · #310.4assists
Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
OKC
WSA116-104WDEN96-84WLAC108-101WPHX125-114LDAL120-96
WSH
WMIL128-116LTOR112-102WCHI124-120LCHA110-103LCLE121-111

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 7WSHupcomingOKCJan 7OKCthis gameWSH

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
OKC 79% · WSH 21%
ESPN BPI
OKC 77% · WSH 23%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

OKCWSH
4-1Record2-3
115.8Points scored / game113.1
106.9Points allowed / game122.2
+7.6Adjusted margin / game-7.7
L1Current streakL2
4-1Last 10 games2-3
1-1 roadHome / road record1-1 home
64-18 (+11.1)Last season17-65 (-12.0)
YesPlayed yesterdayNo

Oklahoma City Thunder Injury report Thunder

Jalen Williams GOut
Alex Caruso GOut
Thomas Sorber COut
Nikola Topic GOut
Cason Wallace GOut
Chet Holmgren CDay-To-Day

Washington Wizards Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut
Tristan Vukcevic FOut
Jamir Watkins GOut
Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.