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Wizards vs Thunder prediction NBA · Saturday, November 7

Sat, Nov 7 · 8:00 PM ETPaycom Center · MNMT, KSBI, Thunder App
Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards
2-3 · away
Projected score
104-120
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder
4-1 · home
10% win WSHwin OKC 90%
FavoriteOKC
Projected margin16.2
Projected total225
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the Washington Wizards (2-3) on Saturday, November 7 at 8:00 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 90% chance to win and projects a 104-120 score (Wizards – Thunder), about 225 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Wizards are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 2-3 for the Wizards (current streaks: Thunder L1, Wizards L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 14% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Thunder and the Wizards played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards), Jamir Watkins (Wizards), Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder) and Thomas Sorber (Thunder)…. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Thunder dominate this matchup. The model projects Thunder 120 – 104 Wizards, a margin of about 16.2 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder and the Wizards played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other).

  • The overall strength gap (+7.6 vs -7.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Thunder
Team strength (adjusted point differential)OKC +7.6 / WSH -7.7 per game
+15.3
Home-court advantageThunder at home
+2.3
InjuriesOKC: 5 out, 1 questionable · WSH: 3 out, 1 questionable
-1.4
Expected marginfor Thunder
+16.2

Scenarios

Thunder win by 10+
69%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
14%
Wizards win by 10+
2%

Stat comparison Current season

WSHOKC
113.1
Points scored / game
115.8
122.2
Points allowed / game
106.9
48.0 %
Field goal %
44.0 %
28.5 %
3-point %
30.9 %
31.6
3-pointers attempted / game
32.4
83.1 %
Free throw %
86.4 %
40.0
Rebounds / game
46.0
25.8
Assists / game
22.0
7.4
Steals / game
8.4
5.6
Blocks / game
6.8
13.6
Turnovers / game
13.6

Players to watch

Wizards
Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game
Trae YoungG · #310.4assists
Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
WSH
WMIL128-116LTOR112-102WCHI124-120LCHA110-103LCLE121-111
OKC
WSA116-104WDEN96-84WLAC108-101WPHX125-114LDAL120-96

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 7WSHthis gameOKCJan 7OKCupcomingWSH

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
WSH 10% · OKC 90%
ESPN BPI
WSH 16% · OKC 84%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

WSHOKC
2-3Record4-1
113.1Points scored / game115.8
122.2Points allowed / game106.9
-7.7Adjusted margin / game+7.6
L2Current streakL1
2-3Last 10 games4-1
1-2 roadHome / road record3-0 home
17-65 (-12.0)Last season64-18 (+11.1)
YesPlayed yesterdayYes

Washington Wizards Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut
Tristan Vukcevic FOut
Jamir Watkins GOut
Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Oklahoma City Thunder Injury report Thunder

Jalen Williams GOut
Alex Caruso GOut
Thomas Sorber COut
Nikola Topic GOut
Cason Wallace GOut
Chet Holmgren CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.