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Jazz vs Nets prediction NBA · Wednesday, January 6

Wed, Jan 6 · 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · DAZN (YES), KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Utah Jazz

1-4 · away

Projected score

115-117

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · home

43% win UTAHwin BKN 57%

FavoriteBKN

Projected margin2.1

Projected total231

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Brooklyn Nets (0-4) host the Utah Jazz (1-4) on Wednesday, January 6 at 7:30 PM ET at Barclays Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nets a 57% chance to win and projects a 115-117 score (Jazz – Nets), about 231 total points. This season, the Nets are 0-2 at home and the Jazz are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Nets and 1-4 for the Jazz (current streaks: Nets L4, Jazz L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz), Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz), Egor Demin (Nets) and Tyler Bilodeau (Nets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Nets 117 – 115 Jazz, a margin of about 2.1 points in favor of the Nets and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Jazz's offense (116.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Nets' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BKN -8.4 / UTAH -7.0 per game

-1.4

Home-court advantageNets at home

+2.3

InjuriesBKN: 2 out, 0 questionable · UTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable

+1.3

Expected marginfor Nets

+2.1

Scenarios

Nets win by 10+

26%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Jazz win by 10+

17%

Stat comparison Current season

UTAHBKN

116.1

Points scored / game

108.0

124.3

Points allowed / game

117.9

45.4 %

Field goal %

42.9 %

33.9 %

3-point %

36.7 %

34.8

3-pointers attempted / game

42.3

76.6 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

43.5

26.8

Assists / game

24.0

5.0

Steals / game

10.0

6.4

Blocks / game

4.0

17.0

Turnovers / game

17.5

Players to watch

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

UTAH 43% · BKN 57%

ESPN BPI

UTAH 58% · BKN 42%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

UTAH		BKN
1-4	Record	0-4
116.1	Points scored / game	108.0
124.3	Points allowed / game	117.9
-7.0	Adjusted margin / game	-8.4
L3	Current streak	L4
1-4	Last 10 games	0-4
0-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
22-60 (-8.4)	Last season	20-62 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.