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Nets vs Jazz prediction NBA · Monday, January 4

Mon, Jan 4 · 9:00 PM ETDelta Center · DAZN (YES), KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · away

Projected score

114-117

Utah Jazz

1-4 · home

42% win BKNwin UTAH 58%

FavoriteUTAH

Projected margin2.5

Projected total231

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Utah Jazz (1-4) host the Brooklyn Nets (0-4) on Monday, January 4 at 9:00 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Jazz a 58% chance to win and projects a 114-117 score (Nets – Jazz), about 231 total points. This season, the Jazz are 1-3 at home and the Nets are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Jazz and 0-4 for the Nets (current streaks: Jazz L3, Nets L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Egor Demin (Nets), Tyler Bilodeau (Nets), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz) and Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Jazz 117 – 114 Nets, a margin of about 2.5 points in favor of the Jazz and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Nets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Jazz's offense (116.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Nets' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Jazz

Team strength (adjusted point differential)UTAH -7.0 / BKN -8.4 per game

+1.4

Home-court advantageJazz at home

+2.3

InjuriesUTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable · BKN: 2 out, 0 questionable

-1.3

Expected marginfor Jazz

+2.5

Scenarios

Jazz win by 10+

27%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Nets win by 10+

16%

Stat comparison Current season

BKNUTAH

108.0

Points scored / game

116.1

117.9

Points allowed / game

124.3

42.9 %

Field goal %

45.4 %

36.7 %

3-point %

33.9 %

42.3

3-pointers attempted / game

34.8

76.6 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

43.5

Rebounds / game

46.8

24.0

Assists / game

26.8

10.0

Steals / game

5.0

4.0

Blocks / game

6.4

17.5

Turnovers / game

17.0

Players to watch

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BKN 42% · UTAH 58%

ESPN BPI

BKN 34% · UTAH 66%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BKN		UTAH
0-4	Record	1-4
108.0	Points scored / game	116.1
117.9	Points allowed / game	124.3
-8.4	Adjusted margin / game	-7.0
L4	Current streak	L3
0-4	Last 10 games	1-4
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-3 home
20-62 (-10.0)	Last season	22-60 (-8.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.