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Grizzlies vs Heat prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 5

Tue, Jan 5 · 7:30 PM ETKaseya Center · DAZN MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · away

Projected score

116-119

Miami Heat

1-4 · home

40% win MEMwin MIA 60%

FavoriteMIA

Projected margin3.2

Projected total235

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Miami Heat (1-4) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Tuesday, January 5 at 7:30 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Heat a 60% chance to win and projects a 116-119 score (Grizzlies – Heat), about 235 total points. This season, the Heat are 0-3 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Heat and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Heat W1, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Heat, but the Grizzlies have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Heat 119 – 116 Grizzlies, a margin of about 3.2 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 235 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's offense (118.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Heat

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIA -0.6 / MEM -1.8 per game

+1.2

Home-court advantageHeat at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIA: 0 out, 1 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable

-0.3

Expected marginfor Heat

+3.2

Scenarios

Heat win by 10+

29%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Grizzlies win by 10+

15%

Stat comparison Current season

MEMMIA

115.2

Points scored / game

118.6

117.3

Points allowed / game

119.2

45.3 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

39.1 %

3-point %

31.7 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

82.8 %

Free throw %

71.7 %

50.0

Rebounds / game

42.8

25.0

Assists / game

27.0

6.3

Steals / game

8.4

6.3

Blocks / game

5.4

15.5

Turnovers / game

14.2

Players to watch

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MEM 40% · MIA 60%

ESPN BPI

MEM 33% · MIA 67%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MEM		MIA
4-0	Record	1-4
115.2	Points scored / game	118.6
117.3	Points allowed / game	119.2
-1.8	Adjusted margin / game	-0.6
W4	Current streak	W1
4-0	Last 10 games	1-4
3-0 road	Home / road record	0-3 home
25-57 (-6.0)	Last season	43-39 (+2.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.