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Heat vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 16

Wed, Dec 16 · 8:00 PM ETFedExForum

Miami Heat

1-4 · away

Projected score

116-118

Memphis Grizzlies

5-0 · home

43% win MIAwin MEM 57%

FavoriteMEM

Projected margin2.2

Projected total235

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (5-0) host the Miami Heat (1-4) on Wednesday, December 16 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 57% chance to win and projects a 116-118 score (Heat – Grizzlies), about 235 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Heat are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Grizzlies and 1-4 for the Heat (current streaks: Grizzlies W5, Heat W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Grizzlies 118 – 116 Heat, a margin of about 2.2 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 235 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -0.6 / MIA -0.6 per game

-0.1

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

InjuriesMEM: 0 out, 1 questionable · MIA: 0 out, 1 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

+2.2

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

27%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Heat win by 10+

16%

Stat comparison Current season

MIAMEM

118.6

Points scored / game

115.7

119.2

Points allowed / game

116.4

45.3 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

31.7 %

3-point %

39.1 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

71.7 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

42.8

Rebounds / game

50.0

27.0

Assists / game

25.0

8.4

Steals / game

6.3

5.4

Blocks / game

6.3

14.2

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

MEM

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105W

124-103

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIA 43% · MEM 57%

ESPN BPI

MIA 57% · MEM 43%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

MIA		MEM
1-4	Record	5-0
118.6	Points scored / game	115.7
119.2	Points allowed / game	116.4
-0.6	Adjusted margin / game	-0.6
W1	Current streak	W5
1-4	Last 10 games	5-0
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
43-39 (+2.3)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Injury report Grizzlies

Quinten Post CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.