Knicks vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Monday, January 4
At a glance
The Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) host the New York Knicks (2-3) on Monday, January 4 at 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 51% chance to win and projects a 114-113 score (Knicks – Trail Blazers), about 227 total points. This season, the Trail Blazers are 1-0 at home and the Knicks are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-0 for the Trail Blazers and 2-3 for the Knicks (current streaks: Trail Blazers W3, Knicks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks), Robert Williams III (Trail Blazers), Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers) and Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Trail Blazers 113 – 114 Knicks, a margin of about 0.4 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Trail Blazers will be without Robert Williams III or Chris Youngblood (and 1 other). The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Trail Blazers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Trail Blazers' offense (118.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
NYPOR
Players to watch
Knicks
Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game
Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists
Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8reboundsTrail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game
Ja MorantG · #16.3assists
Donovan ClinganC · #239.3reboundsRecent form
NY
106-100L
107-103L
111-102W
111-97W
133-127POR
110-98L
128-118W
124-83W128-120W
136-129
POR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| NY | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-0 |
| 114.5 | Points scored / game | 118.2 |
| 110.0 | Points allowed / game | 114.7 |
| +3.8 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.0 |
| W2 | Current streak | W3 |
| 2-3 | Last 10 games | 3-0 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 1-0 home |
| 53-29 (+6.3) | Last season | 42-40 (-0.3) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Knicks
Injury report Trail Blazers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.