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Hawks vs 76ers prediction NBA · Monday, January 4

Mon, Jan 4 · 7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · away

Projected score

115-114

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · home

56% win ATLwin PHI 44%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin1.8

Projected total229

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Monday, January 4 at 7:00 PM ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 56% chance to win and projects a 115-114 score (Hawks – 76ers), about 229 total points. This season, the 76ers are 2-1 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the 76ers and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: 76ers W1, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks), Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers) and Ariel Hukporti (76ers). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects 76ers 114 – 115 Hawks, a margin of about 1.8 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others). The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar.

The 76ers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge 76ers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHI +0.7 / ATL +2.7 per game

-2.0

Home-court advantage76ers at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHI: 4 out, 1 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable

-2.2

Expected marginfor 76ers

-1.8

Scenarios

76ers win by 10+

17%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Hawks win by 10+

26%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLPHI

119.0

Points scored / game

114.4

115.8

Points allowed / game

113.5

46.9 %

Field goal %

42.8 %

34.8 %

3-point %

32.6 %

41.4

3-pointers attempted / game

35.0

72.8 %

Free throw %

77.5 %

41.4

Rebounds / game

42.2

32.2

Assists / game

24.6

10.2

Steals / game

9.8

3.6

Blocks / game

5.6

14.0

Turnovers / game

12.6

Players to watch

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ATL 56% · PHI 44%

ESPN BPI

ATL 38% · PHI 62%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

ATL		PHI
2-3	Record	4-1
119.0	Points scored / game	114.4
115.8	Points allowed / game	113.5
+2.7	Adjusted margin / game	+0.7
L3	Current streak	W1
2-3	Last 10 games	4-1
2-1 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
46-36 (+2.4)	Last season	45-37 (-0.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.