Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

76ers vs Hawks prediction NBA · Monday, January 18

Mon, Jan 18 · 2:30 PM ETState Farm Arena · NBC

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · away

Projected score

111-118

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · home

30% win PHIwin ATL 70%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin6.4

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) on Monday, January 18 at 2:30 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 70% chance to win and projects a 111-118 score (76ers – Hawks), about 229 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the 76ers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 4-1 for the 76ers (current streaks: Hawks L3, 76ers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers), Ariel Hukporti (76ers), Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Hawks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Hawks 118 – 111 76ers, a margin of about 6.4 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others).

The 76ers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / PHI +0.7 per game

+2.0

Home-court advantageHawks at home

+2.3

InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · PHI: 4 out, 1 questionable

+2.2

Expected marginfor Hawks

+6.4

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+

39%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

76ers win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

PHIATL

114.4

Points scored / game

119.0

113.5

Points allowed / game

115.8

42.8 %

Field goal %

46.9 %

32.6 %

3-point %

34.8 %

35.0

3-pointers attempted / game

41.4

77.5 %

Free throw %

72.8 %

42.2

Rebounds / game

41.4

24.6

Assists / game

32.2

9.8

Steals / game

10.2

5.6

Blocks / game

3.6

12.6

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHI 30% · ATL 70%

ESPN BPI

PHI 49% · ATL 51%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHI		ATL
4-1	Record	2-3
114.4	Points scored / game	119.0
113.5	Points allowed / game	115.8
+0.7	Adjusted margin / game	+2.7
W1	Current streak	L3
4-1	Last 10 games	2-3
2-0 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
45-37 (-0.2)	Last season	46-36 (+2.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.