Kings vs Thunder prediction NBA · Sunday, January 3
At a glance
The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Sunday, January 3 at 8:00 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 94% chance to win and projects a 102-121 score (Kings – Thunder), about 223 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Thunder L1, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 10% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Thunder and the Kings played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings), Ben Simmons (Kings), Jalen Williams (Thunder) and Alex Caruso (Thunder)…. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Thunder start with a clear edge. The model projects Thunder 121 – 102 Kings, a margin of about 19.1 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 223 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder and the Kings played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+7.6 vs -10.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (115.8 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
SACOKC
Players to watch
Kings
Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game
Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assistsDomantas SabonisF · #1116.5reboundsThunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsRecent form
SAC
121-96L
128-120L
123-112L
130-103L
132-120OKC116-104W
96-84W108-101W
125-114L
120-96Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
OKC
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| SAC | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 110.2 | Points scored / game | 115.8 |
| 122.1 | Points allowed / game | 106.9 |
| -10.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +7.6 |
| L4 | Current streak | L1 |
| 0-4 | Last 10 games | 4-1 |
| 0-2 road | Home / road record | 3-0 home |
| 22-60 (-10.0) | Last season | 64-18 (+11.1) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Kings
Injury report Thunder
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.