Thunder vs Kings prediction NBA · Sunday, November 15
At a glance
The Sacramento Kings (0-4) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Sunday, November 15 at 9:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 88% chance to win and projects a 119-105 score (Thunder – Kings), about 224 total points. This season, the Kings are 0-2 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Kings and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Kings L4, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 16% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder), Cason Wallace (Thunder) and Dylan Cardwell (Kings)…. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Thunder dominate this matchup. The model projects Kings 105 – 119 Thunder, a margin of about 14.5 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-10.1 vs +7.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (115.8 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCSAC
Players to watch
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsKings
Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game
Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assistsDomantas SabonisF · #1116.5reboundsRecent form
OKC
116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96SAC126-97L121-96L
128-120L
123-112L130-103Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
OKC
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| OKC | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 0-4 |
| 115.8 | Points scored / game | 110.2 |
| 106.9 | Points allowed / game | 122.1 |
| +7.6 | Adjusted margin / game | -10.1 |
| L1 | Current streak | L4 |
| 4-1 | Last 10 games | 0-4 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 64-18 (+11.1) | Last season | 22-60 (-10.0) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Kings
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.