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Clippers vs Wizards prediction NBA · Sunday, January 3

Sun, Jan 3 · 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · ClipperVision

LA Clippers

1-3 · away

Projected score

115-111

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

64% win LACwin WSH 36%

FavoriteLAC

Projected margin4.4

Projected total226

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the LA Clippers (1-3) on Sunday, January 3 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Clippers a 64% chance to win and projects a 115-111 score (Clippers – Wizards), about 226 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Clippers are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 1-3 for the Clippers (current streaks: Wizards L2, Clippers L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Clippers), Max Strus (Clippers), Brandon Ingram (Clippers), Bradley Beal (Clippers), Jordan Miller (Clippers) and Justin Champagnie (Wizards)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Clippers, but the Wizards have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Wizards 111 – 115 Clippers, a margin of about 4.4 points in favor of the Clippers and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Clippers will be without Yanic Konan Niederhauser or Max Strus (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs +0.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Clippers' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / LAC +0.4 per game

-8.1

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · LAC: 5 out, 1 questionable

+1.4

Expected marginfor Wizards

-4.4

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

12%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Clippers win by 10+

33%

Stat comparison Current season

LACWSH

112.0

Points scored / game

113.1

111.5

Points allowed / game

122.2

45.9 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

39.0 %

3-point %

28.5 %

35.3

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

78.6 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

40.8

Rebounds / game

40.0

25.0

Assists / game

25.8

12.5

Steals / game

7.4

4.5

Blocks / game

5.6

23.0

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Clippers

Darius GarlandG · #1021.5pts / game

Darius GarlandG · #106.5assists

Rui HachimuraF · #286.0rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

LAC

122-110W

121-96L

125-117L

108-101L

103-87

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

LAC 64% · WSH 36%

ESPN BPI

LAC 44% · WSH 56%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

LAC		WSH
1-3	Record	2-3
112.0	Points scored / game	113.1
111.5	Points allowed / game	122.2
+0.4	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
L3	Current streak	L2
1-3	Last 10 games	2-3
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
42-40 (+1.1)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Clippers

Yanic Konan Niederhauser COut

Max Strus GOut

Brandon Ingram FOut

Bradley Beal GOut

Jordan Miller GOut

Rui Hachimura FDay-To-Day

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.