Lakers vs Raptors prediction NBA · Sunday, January 3
At a glance
The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) on Sunday, January 3 at 7:00 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 69% chance to win and projects a 110-116 score (Lakers – Raptors), about 226 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Lakers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 4-1 for the Lakers (current streaks: Raptors W1, Lakers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Lakers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers), Adou Thiero (Lakers), Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Raptors are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Raptors 116 – 110 Lakers, a margin of about 6.1 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Lakers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Lakers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Lakers' offense (118.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
LALTOR
Players to watch
Lakers
Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / gameLuka DoncicG · #778.2assists
Walker KesslerC · #148.2reboundsRaptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsRecent form
LAL
127-105W
125-117W
132-123L
136-129W103-87TOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W
129-99
TOR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| LAL | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| 118.4 | Points scored / game | 115.4 |
| 114.3 | Points allowed / game | 109.5 |
| +3.5 | Adjusted margin / game | +5.0 |
| W1 | Current streak | W1 |
| 4-1 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 2-0 road | Home / road record | 2-0 home |
| 53-29 (+1.8) | Last season | 46-36 (+2.8) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Lakers
Injury report Raptors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.