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Pistons vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Sunday, January 3

Sun, Jan 3 · 5:00 PM ETBall Arena

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · away

Projected score

116-110

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

67% win DETwin DEN 33%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin5.5

Projected total226

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Detroit Pistons (4-1) on Sunday, January 3 at 5:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 67% chance to win and projects a 116-110 score (Pistons – Nuggets), about 226 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Pistons are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 4-1 for the Pistons (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Pistons W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Nuggets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets) and Julian Strawther (Nuggets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Pistons, but the Nuggets have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Nuggets 110 – 116 Pistons, a margin of about 5.5 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nuggets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / DET +6.5 per game

-3.9

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

Back-to-backNuggets played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · DET: 1 out, 1 questionable

-2.4

Expected marginfor Nuggets

-5.5

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

11%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Pistons win by 10+

36%

Stat comparison Current season

DETDEN

115.4

Points scored / game

119.2

107.8

Points allowed / game

116.2

45.9 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

37.9 %

3-point %

32.8 %

36.4

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

74.4 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

44.5

27.0

Assists / game

26.0

8.0

Steals / game

10.0

7.2

Blocks / game

4.8

15.6

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DET 67% · DEN 33%

ESPN BPI

DET 56% · DEN 44%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DET		DEN
4-1	Record	2-2
115.4	Points scored / game	119.2
107.8	Points allowed / game	116.2
+6.5	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
W1	Current streak	W1
4-1	Last 10 games	2-2
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
60-22 (+8.2)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Injury report Nuggets

Alpha Diallo FOut

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.