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Nuggets vs Pistons prediction NBA · Monday, November 30

Mon, Nov 30 · 7:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

109-117

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · home

25% win DENwin DET 75%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin8.5

Projected total226

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Detroit Pistons (4-1) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Monday, November 30 at 7:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 75% chance to win and projects a 109-117 score (Nuggets – Pistons), about 226 total points. This season, the Pistons are 2-0 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Pistons and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Pistons W1, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pistons and the Nuggets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets) and Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Pistons start with a clear edge. The model projects Pistons 117 – 109 Nuggets, a margin of about 8.5 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons and the Nuggets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pistons

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DET +6.5 / DEN +2.6 per game

+3.9

Home-court advantagePistons at home

+2.3

InjuriesDET: 1 out, 1 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

+2.4

Expected marginfor Pistons

+8.5

Scenarios

Pistons win by 10+

45%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

25%

Nuggets win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

DENDET

119.2

Points scored / game

115.4

116.2

Points allowed / game

107.8

45.8 %

Field goal %

45.9 %

32.8 %

3-point %

37.9 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

36.4

79.6 %

Free throw %

74.4 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

46.8

26.0

Assists / game

27.0

10.0

Steals / game

8.0

4.8

Blocks / game

7.2

15.3

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 25% · DET 75%

ESPN BPI

DEN 37% · DET 63%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DEN		DET
2-2	Record	4-1
119.2	Points scored / game	115.4
116.2	Points allowed / game	107.8
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	+6.5
W1	Current streak	W1
2-2	Last 10 games	4-1
1-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	60-22 (+8.2)
Yes	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Nuggets

Alpha Diallo FOut

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.