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Lakers vs Bulls prediction NBA · Saturday, January 2

Sat, Jan 2 · 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers
4-1 · away
Projected score
121-113
Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls
1-4 · home
75% win LALwin CHI 25%
FavoriteLAL
Projected margin8.3
Projected total234
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Chicago Bulls (1-4) host the Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) on Saturday, January 2 at 8:00 PM ET at United Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 75% chance to win and projects a 121-113 score (Lakers – Bulls), about 234 total points. This season, the Bulls are 0-2 at home and the Lakers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bulls and 4-1 for the Lakers (current streaks: Bulls L3, Lakers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers), Adou Thiero (Lakers), Patrick Williams (Bulls) and Nic Claxton (Bulls). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Lakers start with a clear edge. The model projects Bulls 113 – 121 Lakers, a margin of about 8.3 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero.

  • The overall strength gap (-7.2 vs +3.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Lakers' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bulls
Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHI -7.2 / LAL +3.5 per game
-10.6
Home-court advantageBulls at home
+2.3
InjuriesCHI: 2 out, 2 questionable · LAL: 2 out, 2 questionable
0.0
Expected marginfor Bulls
-8.3

Scenarios

Bulls win by 10+
7%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
25%
Lakers win by 10+
45%

Stat comparison Current season

LALCHI
118.4
Points scored / game
115.6
114.3
Points allowed / game
124.1
52.9 %
Field goal %
42.1 %
39.2 %
3-point %
27.6 %
36.2
3-pointers attempted / game
42.0
79.1 %
Free throw %
78.6 %
38.0
Rebounds / game
44.8
24.0
Assists / game
24.4
10.8
Steals / game
9.0
5.8
Blocks / game
4.8
16.6
Turnovers / game
17.8

Players to watch

Lakers
Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game
Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists
Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds
Bulls
Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game
Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists
Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
LAL
WGS127-105WLAC125-117WUTAH132-123LPOR136-129WLAC103-87
CHI
LTOR135-92WMIL132-125LWSH124-120LBOS134-99LNY133-127

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Jan 2LALthis gameCHIFeb 16CHIupcomingLAL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
LAL 75% · CHI 25%
ESPN BPI
LAL 74% · CHI 26%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LALCHI
4-1Record1-4
118.4Points scored / game115.6
114.3Points allowed / game124.1
+3.5Adjusted margin / game-7.2
W1Current streakL3
4-1Last 10 games1-4
2-0 roadHome / road record0-2 home
53-29 (+1.8)Last season31-51 (-5.2)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Los Angeles Lakers Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut
Adou Thiero FOut
Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day
Luka Doncic GDay-To-Day

Chicago Bulls Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut
Nic Claxton COut
Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day
Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.