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Celtics vs Jazz prediction NBA · Friday, January 1

Fri, Jan 1 · 9:30 PM ETDelta Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Boston Celtics

3-1 · away

Projected score

122-109

Utah Jazz

1-4 · home

86% win BOSwin UTAH 14%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin13.5

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Utah Jazz (1-4) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Friday, January 1 at 9:30 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 86% chance to win and projects a 122-109 score (Celtics – Jazz), about 231 total points. This season, the Jazz are 1-3 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Jazz and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: Jazz L3, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 18% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz) and Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Celtics start with a clear edge. The model projects Jazz 109 – 122 Celtics, a margin of about 13.5 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-7.0 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Jazz

Team strength (adjusted point differential)UTAH -7.0 / BOS +6.6 per game

-13.6

Home-court advantageJazz at home

+2.3

InjuriesUTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable · BOS: 1 out, 0 questionable

-2.2

Expected marginfor Jazz

-13.5

Scenarios

Jazz win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

18%

Celtics win by 10+

61%

Stat comparison Current season

BOSUTAH

116.1

Points scored / game

116.1

108.3

Points allowed / game

124.3

46.5 %

Field goal %

45.4 %

38.6 %

3-point %

33.9 %

41.5

3-pointers attempted / game

34.8

76.0 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

44.3

Rebounds / game

46.8

27.8

Assists / game

26.8

9.0

Steals / game

5.0

3.8

Blocks / game

6.4

15.5

Turnovers / game

17.0

Players to watch

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BOS 86% · UTAH 14%

ESPN BPI

BOS 70% · UTAH 31%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BOS		UTAH
3-1	Record	1-4
116.1	Points scored / game	116.1
108.3	Points allowed / game	124.3
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	-7.0
W3	Current streak	L3
3-1	Last 10 games	1-4
0-1 road	Home / road record	1-3 home
56-26 (+7.7)	Last season	22-60 (-8.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.